Russia's invasion of Ukraine has entered the second month but with no sign of a ceasefire yet. The flurry of diplomatic activities combined with the threat of more economic sanctions continues. Meanwhile, Poland has suggested a kind of peace mission as an interim measure.2 Gowan, The UN Director of Crisis Group, even though has not outrightly rejected the Polish 'Peace Mission,' rightly pointed out that "There is a natural tendency in moments of crisis to raise the idea of “peacekeeping” in a vague way, much as Poland has done. In the case of Ukraine, it would be unwise to invest too much hope in the prospects for peace operations."
Gowan observed that such an idea of using Blue Helmets came up earlier also in 2015 and Putin was open to the idea. Comparing the starting points for a peacekeeping mission in 2015 and now, it had a better chance in 2015 because Putin was at least open to the idea. That the Blue Helmets would be able to do something is making rounds again. Even a former Canadian foreign minister and a professor of law at the University of Ottawa Axworthy and Rock believe that the UN can use Blue Helmets to save Ukrainian lives.Without being prejudiced against the probability of success of a UN peace operation, the bigger question is who is going to participate in such a mission. Given the kind of violence that the peacekeepers would be exposed to (including the threat to peacekeepers), any peacekeeping mission for such a conflict must comprise capable peacekeepers. The desired capability is at a premium except for a few nations from the Global South and mostly from the western nations. But the member states from the West are not inclined to take part in difficult peace operations. Therefore, expecting a few developed nations from the West to field their soldiers and face the wrath of Russia is like expecting them to participate in UN peace operations in complex intra-state conflicts in Africa. These nations will be happier with their status quo contributions. But it is also a testing time for the developed nations that the conflict is not very far away from their land as both President Putin and President Zelensky are now trapped inside their self-created political narratives either to come to or remain in power.
The world is cursing Russia for the suffering of Ukraine. But...
UN peacekeeping as a tool for conflict management serves the best when there is consent from the parties to the conflict for the deployment of the peacekeepers. Given the suffering, there are chances that Ukraine might agree to a peacekeeping mission just to alleviate the suffering of the civilians. As noted by Gowan earlier, Putin was open to the idea in 2015 possibly with the hope for the Minsk Agreement could be implemented in letter and spirit. To deploy peacekeepers without the consent of the parties to the conflict is against the first cardinal principle of UN peacekeeping – Consent. Besides, UN peacekeeping rarely succeeds when get deployed in vicious conflicts. Using statistical analysis and selected case studies, Doyle and Sambanis studied several complex peace operations since 1960 to find out why the UN tends to fail at making war and how it succeeds in some countries. They concluded that while UN peace operations can be effective in the initial years if each mission is designed to fit the conflict, UN peace operations can also be effective by supporting new actors who are sincere in their commitment to peace. They however observed that the UN would not be effective in intervening in the ongoing wars other than giving technical advice to non-UN-led multinational peace operations.
The world is cursing Russia for the suffering of Ukraine. But there was one year time for the UN (Secretary-General) and the world leaders, when Russia dropped paratroopers near the Ukraine border on 21 February 2021 and until the actual invasion on 24 February 2022 to initiate preventive diplomacy and may be considered preventive deployment to prevent the conflict.It is intriguing that that window was lost either deliberately or out of ignorance. It is difficult to believe that it can be out of ignorance. The world kept talking about the invasion
